Tehran Institute for Advanced Studies (TEIAS)

/ The New Normal: A Sector-Level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies __ Kevin Wiseman


The New Normal: A Sector-Level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies

May 08, 2017


Khatam University, Building No2.
Address: Mollasadra Blvd., North Shirazi St., East Daneshvar St., No.17. See location on Google map


Dr. Kevin Wiseman

Economist in the Strategy Policy and Review Department of International Monetary Fund Biography


The anemic post-crisis growth in advanced economies continues even as many countries are more than half a decade into their recoveries. But these disappointing results are part of a decades-long decline in output and productivity growth that has deeper roots. This paper examines the drivers of the long-run and recent declines in growth at the sectoral level, documenting that labor is moving from high- to low-productivity sectors and from high to low growth sectors, and that policy distortions are causing wasteful allocations in protected sectors especially agriculture and personal services. This paper diagnoses these factors on a country-by-country basis and makes policy recommendations tailored to country circumstances. Product market reforms and a focus on lowering barriers to entry in high-markup sectors for countries further from the technology frontier, and greater ICT investment, R&D spending, and human capital promotion in economies at the technology frontier generating positive spillovers. The paper also assesses tradeoffs between short term costs and long term benefits of politically difficult reforms.



Dr. Kevin Wiseman is an economist at the International Monetary Fund in the Strategy, Policy, and Review department. His recent analytical work includes assessments of the growth effect of debt deleveraging episodes, causes and policy prescriptions for long-run productivity decline, disentangling domestic and global determinants of sovereign bond spreads and exposure to risk sentiment, and the role of banking relationships in business cycles. He reviews Germany, the UK, Switzerland, Ireland and several other countries, including Iran. Kevin received his B.A. in Philosophy from Yale University his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Minnesota. His graduate work focused on dynamic models with heterogeneous agents, including a forthcoming paper on Parental bequest behavior in a dynamic contracting environment.